Past Geo-political Confrontations Hint Syria's Effect on U.S. Markets

Amid growing likelihood that the United States will launch a military strike on Syria, it’s hard to get a good picture of what an attack on Syria would mean for U.S. markets. Everyone’s got a story to sell. On one hand, renowned investors and market analysts say the Syria conflict will turn stocks lower, despite historical reference that proves otherwise. Marketwatch reporter Mark Hulbert recently referenced an article, which was published in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 1989, written by economics professors David Cutler of Harvard, James Poterba of MIT, and Larry Summers, currently one of the leading candidates to be the next Federal Reserve chairman.

In their study, the scholars calculated the impact of non-economic news on the stock market. They took into consideration important world events starting with Pearl Harbor and ending with the market crash of 1987. They then eliminated from their chronological list any events that didn’t make for a lead story in the New York Times, as well as cut stories that the Times’ business section didn’t report as having an impact on investors.

After chopping the list, the scholars came up with 49 distinct events, including Pearl Harbor, Kennedy’s assassination, etc. After comparing with historical market prices, the scholars came up with minimal evidence that non-economics events had significant influence on the stock market. On average, the S&P 500 was swayed by a 1.46%, less than one percentage point more than the 0.56% that prevailed on all other days. The professors concluded that there was “a surprisingly small effect of non-economic news” on U.S. markets.

Hulbert was careful to point out that the professors’ findings don’t mean that U.S. intervention has little to no impact on the broader economy or even the stock market, but demonstrates the stock market’s ability to allow concession for the future.

To compare to more current events adds weight to the assertion that an attack on Syria might not spark a long-lived downturn, as some may expect. As CNN earlier this week reported, here’s a look at the correlation of military action and U.S. markets in the past:

1991: Operation Desert Storm – In the two weeks leading up to Congressional authorization of Operation Desert Storm in early 1991, the S&P 500 index slumped nearly 5% while oil jumped 12.5%.

January 17, 1991, the day after the U.S. launched an air campaign in Iraq, oil prices saw one of their largest one-day drops, plunging 33% while the S&P 500 gained 3.7%

2003: The Iraq War - Oil prices kept a steady pace in the three months before fighting in Iraq began March 19, 2003.

Oil climbed nearly 40%, from $18 a barrel in early December to $25 on March 18. The S&P fell 11% during the same period.

Oil plunged 24% and the S&P rebounded 8% in the week after President Bush issued his final ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on March 16.

2011: Libya - The month before the U.S. intervention in the Libyan civil war on March 19, 2011, stocks fell 5% and oil climbed 12%.

Stocks rebounded after the fighting started, rising 1.5% the first day of trading after military action began, and up 4% by the end of the month.

Oil prices continued to rise in the first weeks of military action, peaking a month after the start of U.S. action and falling 24% by the time rebel forces gained control of the country four months later.

2013: Syria - The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow rose between 0.1% and 0.5% to end the trading day higher, but below earlier highs when leaders in the House of Representatives Tuesday said they would support President Obama's plan for a U.S.-led strike on Syria.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that events on our own soil and specific U.S. economy (quantitative easing, interest rates, jobs, etc.) have more impact on the stock market than the threat of a U.S. attack on Syria.

Pending Home Sales

A dip in mortgage rates gave Americans a good reason to take out home-related loans last week, as applications for mortgages jumped 1.3 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The jump in seasonally adjusted mortgage applications for the week ended August 3 came as the interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 4.73 percent, from a 2013 high of 4.80 percent a week ago, the MBA said.

However, much of the gains came from the refinance index, which jumped 2 percent from the previous week. Applications for the purchase index actually dropped 0.4 percent. The refinance index's share of total applications climbed to 61 percent, up from 60 percent in the prior week.

The housing industry has been a big driver in the U.S. economic recovery. The real estate rebound has been driven by Federal Reserve policy that includes $85 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage-backed bonds and U.S. government bonds in an effort to keep borrowing rates low.

Since May, however, mortgage rates have jumped more than a full percentage point on fears that the Fed would start pulling back on its bond-buying program later this year.

In a sign that rising rates are slowing the housing momentum, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that pending home sales dropped in July as mortgage rates began to climb. The 1.3 percent drop doesn’t have experts worried yet, and overall sales are still higher than years past, but higher mortgage costs combined with higher sales prices are expected to have a greater impact over time.

Pending sales have stayed above year ago levels for the past 27 months but Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is an uneven pattern around the country. NAR analysts argue that homebuilding is the answer to relieving pressure on supply, particularly in the west, although they predict home sales to continue rising throughout 2013.

Similarly, new home sales in July plunged 13.4 percent.

Exploring the Effect of QE Taper

Summer is under wraps as we head into September, and one of the month’s biggest events is just three weeks away. Chances are, the Feds will begin cutting back on its bong purchase program after the meeting slated for September 17-18.

Most economists believe the withdrawal of quantitative easing (QE) could pose a threat to investors over the next five years, triggering a sharper and quicker spike in government bond yields, and reducing expected returns on office property.

A report published by DTZ, a UGZ company, investigated the possible impact of QE withdrawal on the global property market, focusing on the impact on 20 key office markets in Europe and the U.S. through year-end 2017.

The report tests these markets under two different scenarios.

Under the base case, the report details an orderly QE unwind, while in the early withdrawal scenario, support is withdrawn when economic growth surprises on the upside. A rise in bond yields sees most key office markets in the U.S. and Europe continue to look attractively priced for investors.

The report states that although rises in bond yields driven by QE withdrawal will put upward pressure on property yields, this will be mitigated by a fall in risk premiums and overall improved lending market conditions.

DTZ predicts that the eventual unwinding of QE will imply a sustainable recovery in the economy. This would give rise to a stronger jobs market, stronger occupier demand — and crucially limited new developments — resulting in robust rental growth.

The report also explores a downside scenario of early QE withdrawal on the property sector.

This second scenario has become more relevant as earlier this year bond yields around the world rose following comments by the Federal Reserve which predicted an earlier than anticipated withdrawal from QE measures.

The report states that early withdrawal could provide an unexpected short term surge in the economy in 2014.

However, Central banks would then be likely to withdraw QE more quickly. This would lead to bond yields rising more sharply and see economic growth slow, with the U.S. entering recession in 2016. As a result rental growth would suffer and office yields would be much higher compared to the base case.

Under this scenario current property valuations look much less attractive for investors as expected returns are lower.

“Our base case is for an orderly withdrawal of QE, under which we see current pricing in most key US and European office markets as attractive. However, under our early withdrawal scenario all of the 20 office markets we looked at show a deterioration in pricing due to lower expected returns,” said Fergus Hicks, DTZ’s global head of forecasting.

On the basis of DTZ’s Fair Value analysis, 16 of the office markets covered in the report look attractively priced under the base case forecast, while under the early withdrawal scenario only 13 markets look attractive, with all markets showing a deterioration in pricing. In particular, the early withdrawal scenario sees four markets move from the ‘Hot’ to ‘Warm’ category, and three markets move from the ‘Warm’ to ‘Cold’ category.

Hans Vrensen, DTZ’s Global Head of Research, said, “Our base case assumes that the economy will show a gradual recovery, with the U.S. and UK showing stronger growth than the Eurozone.

“This feeds through to stronger occupier demand and rental growth. Gradual rises in bond yields will put upward pressure on office yields, though we think this will be mitigated by lower property risk premiums,” he concludes. “Our early withdrawal scenario shows a much sharper rise in bond yields and slower growth in the economy following a sharp rebound in 2014. This feeds through to lower expected return forecasts and makes office market pricing look less attractive than under the base case.”

Marc Faber Sets Sights on Treasurys

Analysts at Morgan Stanley say the bond sell-off is already happening but that yields could continue to climb in the coming year, projecting the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield ending 2013 at 2.79% and continuing to climb to 3.36% by the end of the third quarter of 2013.

Editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Marc Faber has been a gold bull for a long time, and with the metal up some 20 percent from its June low, he forecasts that after the big really prices will ease a bit.

Instead of gold, Faber recommends considering another classic safe haven: Treasurys.

"I think the sentiment is incredibly bearish about Treasury bonds and Treasury notes," he said. If the market drops, "people will again fear deflation, and they will move into 10-year Treasury notes."

Deflation has become a greater concern than inflation, and in a certain sense, that makes it surprising that gold has rallied while bonds have dropped. After all, bonds pay out a fixed amount in a certain number of years, meaning that they become a more prized asset as the dollar deflates (because in a deflationary environment, each dollar becomes worth more).

Meanwhile, deflation also means that it takes fewer dollars to buy an ounce of gold, which should lead the gold price to drop.

Faber acknowledges that investors are "not yet" looking for safe assets but predicts that they will if the market slides as much as he expects.

“Scary September” is Upon Us

September is historically the worst month of the year for the stock market, a downtrend dating back to 1928. The market took the worst hit in September of 1931 when the Dow tanked 30%. Fast-forward to date, and there’s much more than a bearish theory looming over the markets. This week alone has a slew of important economic data, compounded couple wildcards, such as the possibility of military attack on Syria and expectations that Federal Reserve policymakers will scale back the quantitative easing program.

Recap

U.S. manufacturers expanded at the fastest pace in August in more than two years, according to the ISM index. The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 55.7% from 55.4% in July, the highest reading since June 2011. Readings above 50 indicate growth. The median forecast in a MarketWatch survey of economists was 54.1%. The ISM's new-orders gauge surged to 63.2% from 58.3%, but the production index fell to 62.4% from 65% and the employment gauge slipped 1.1 percentage points to 53.3%.

Construction spending increased in July to clip its highest level in four years. Outlays climbed 0.6 percent to a $900.8 billion annual rate, the biggest flex since June 2009, after little change in June.

The Commerce Department Wednesday reported that the trade gap widened 13 percent to $39.1 billion in July as exports dipped. Imports of autos, parts and engines were the highest on record in July. The trade deficit in June skidded to a four-year low, though the trade balance was revised to $34.5 billion from previously reported $34.2 billion.

Coming Up

The ADP private payroll report is due out at 8:15 a.m. ET Thursday morning. Economists expect a gain of 180,000 in August, down from 200,000 in July.

August ISM nonmanufacturing and July factory orders are due at 10 a.m. ET Thursday morning.

Investors are looking ahead to Friday for the biggest market-moving event for the week, the August jobs report. A rise in nonfarm payrolls of at least 192,000 – the monthly average so far for the year - is indicative that the economy is growing roughly 2%, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its monetary stimulus. Payrolls are estimated to rise by 180,000 in August, up from 162,000 the month prior.

We won’t see the biggest market mover for September until the meeting of the FOMC mid-month. On this note, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has delayed new stimulus measures until the two-day meeting, scheduled for September 17-18.

Good for Gold

September may have a lousy reputation, but the month is seasonally strong for gold, and in fact is the second best month for the precious metal, trailing the month of November. The move is supported by annual festivals, global holiday gift-giving and seasonal trends in India and China, the two largest consumers of gold.

Jewelry manufacturers stocks up on gold ahead of the coming holidays while Indian farmers look to gold after they sell their harvest.

John Person, president of NationalFutures.com and co-author of the Commodity Trader’s Almanac, said gold has a tendency to start picking up the pace in late July and hitting a short-term peak around September 20, reports Forbes. It then tends to slip into the third week of October, before rising again into the January-February period, depending on when the Chinese New Year occurs.

Some analysts calculate apprehension over macro-events as they caution that we may not see the normal season. The markets will look ahead to October when the U.S. government is expected to hit the ceiling of its borrowing authority, which will likely trigger bi-partisan wrangling on extending the debt limit.

Furthermore, in India, the Indian government is trying to curb the import of metal by imposing higher import duties due to a billowing current-account deficit.

Back in the U.S., commodities investor Jim Rogers at the start of the month said he believes that the situation in Syria would spur a hike in oil and gold prices due to a "market panic," and pointed to historical trends to back up his assertion.

"I own oil, I own gold, I own things like that and if there is going to be a war, and it sounds like America is desperate to have a war, they're going to go much, much higher," Rogers told Reuters. "Stocks are going to go down, some of the markets that I'm sure are already going down, commodities are going to go up. I'm not particularly keen on war, I assure you, but it sounds like they want it."

As a general rule, the bullish season trend for commodities are so ingrained in the market that it will take some serious movement to buck the trend, though the uptick may be more muted and shorter in duration.